Cancer cases would expand by 77% by 2050 – WHO

Projections from the World Health Organization, WHO, show that there will be over 35 million new cases of cancer by 2050—a 77 percent increase over the projected 20 million cases in 2022.

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the cancer agency of the WHO, released a new report ahead of World Cancer Day on Sunday, February 4, that examined the global burden of cancer in 115 countries. The IARC found that most nations do not sufficiently fund priority cancer and palliative care services as part of universal health coverage, UHC.

In the study, only 39 percent of the countries the WHO surveyed provided coverage for basics in cancer management in their health benefits packages. Only 28 percent of the countries provided coverage for palliative medicine services, which is a specialty that focuses on symptom burden and management, for those with serious illnesses.

By measuring cancer disparity by Human Development Index (HDI), the results were startling. The report predicts that the high HDI countries would have the most absolute increase in incidence, with an extra 4.8 million new cases estimated in 2050 compared to estimates for 2022.

Even though cancer mortality is likely to rise, an estimated 142 percent proportional increase in incidence is anticipated in low-HDI countries and a 99 percent increase in medium-HDI countries even as cancer mortality in these countries is projected to almost double in 2050.

Global estimates reveal striking inequities in the cancer burden according to human development. In countries with a very high HDI, 1 in 12 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime and 1 in 71 women die of it. By contrast, in countries with a low HDI; while only one in 27 women is diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime, one in 48 women will die from it.

Deputy Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC.Dr Isabelle Soerjomataram, noted, “Women in lower HDI countries are 50 percent less likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer than women in high HDI countries, yet they are at a much higher risk of dying of the disease due to late diagnosis and inadequate access to quality treatment.

“WHO’s new global survey sheds light on major inequalities and lack of financial protection for cancer around the world, with populations, especially in lower income countries, unable to access the basics of cancer care,” said Dr Bente Mikkelsen, Director of the Department of Noncommunicable Diseases at WHO.

“WHO, including through its cancer initiatives, is working intensively with more than 75 governments to develop, finance and implement policies to promote cancer care for all. To expand on this work, major investments are urgently needed to address global inequities in cancer outcomes.”

The survey said rapidly growing global cancer burden reflects both population ageing and growth, as well as changes to people’s exposure to risk factors, several of which are associated with socioeconomic development. Tobacco, alcohol and obesity are key factors behind the increasing incidence of cancer, with air pollution still a key driver of environmental risk factors.

The Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC, Dr Freddie Bray, said, “The impact of this increase will not be felt evenly across countries of different HDI levels. Those who have the fewest resources to manage their cancer burdens will bear the brunt of the global cancer burden.

“Despite the progress that has been made in the early detection of cancers and the treatment and care of cancer patients–significant disparities in cancer treatment outcomes exist not only between high and low-income regions of the world, but also within countries.”

The Head of the Union for International Cancer Control, UICC, Dr Cary Adams notes, “Where someone lives should not determine whether they live. Tools exist to enable governments to prioritise cancer care, and to ensure that everyone has access to affordable, quality services. This is not just a resource issue but a matter of political will.”